A half-degree rise in average expected temperature increases the probability that a given summer will be extremely hot. "The mean moves and the whole distribution moves with it," explains Stott.
He and his colleagues calculate that human influences doubled the likelihood of the 2003 heat wave. Their results appear in this week's Nature1.
According to Christoph Schär, who conducts climate research at the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Switzerland, this is the first time that a study has worked out how global warming has affected the risk of a particular event.
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